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September 18, 2022The FDI is an investment made from one country to another. This investment is made with the motive of setting up a business in another or acquiring an already established country. As per Moran (2012) it could also be in the form of expanding the existing operations into a new country. The FDI is an important variable for a country to assess its level of growth. Bermejo Carbonell and Werner (2018) suggest that the more the inflow of FDI into the country, the more will be economic growth. Foreign investment affects several other variables in the economy too as it creates employment opportunities for the locals in the country, and helps increase the overall GDP of the country. The investment also impacts the Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) positively as more employment opportunities are created people would be willing to save more.
According to Iamsiraroj (2016), the FDI has proven to be a growth stimulant for developing countries as that brings in technological advancements in the country which leads to the adaptation of technology by other domestic companies to stay competitive. The economic well-being of the region is affected both directly and indirectly by FDI (Makiela and Ouattara, 2018). To attract more FDI, many governments including the UK have relaxed the requirements and provided incentives to foreign companies.
Research Aim and Objectives
The target that this study is trying to achieve is to analyze the influence of FDI on the state of economic growth in the UK. The researcher was encouraged to identify how the FDI leads to the monetary development in the country and how that achieves the status of a stabilized global economy. From the realization of these aims, the researcher designed a few objectives which are as follows:
Objective 1: To understand the concept of FDI in the context of economic development.
Objective 2: To recognize the consumer price index and exchange rate of the UK as the factors affecting the development of the economy.
Objective 3: To identify the impact of FDI on the economic growth of the country.
Objective 4: To develop recommendations for increasing the flow of FDI for effective economic growth.
Research Question
The research question that this study is based on is the following:
Question: What impact does the FDI has on economic growth and its associated variables in the UK?
Research Problem
The FDI is an essential variable to determine the growth in an economy (why?). There is a need to assess the impact that Brexit has on the economy of the UK and how it will impact their economic development. As per the study of Dhingra et al. (2016), there is not any existing research found on the relation of the two variables after the decision taken by Great Britain to leave the European Union. To fill the research gap, this study is carried out to study the impact of FDI on economic growth. The report discusses two variables that are FDI and economic growth. To resolve the research problem and achieve the objectives of this study and in support of previous variables, GNP (Gross National Product) and GDS were discussed also.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Introduction
Global events like the US-China trade war and Brexit had brought a certain level of global trade instability. This instability in the global trading environment had also increased the prices of products and raw materials. Bringing stability to the trade practices of the countries had become a challenge to the economists and government officials of many countries. Brexit has a more severe impact on the trading and economic practices of the United Kingdom (UK) (Simionescu, 2018). In the next section, an empirical review of literature will be developed that will be discussing the economic progress of a country in respect of FDIs made in the country. After the development of the empirical review, the hypothesis of the research will be developed.
Empirical literature review
Doytch and Narayan (2016) explained FDIs (FDI) as the process that is used by the investors of one country to start or support businesses in other countries with long-term benefits. Investors can make horizontal and vertical FDIs when they are making investments in other countries. Their study uses the sources of 74 countries with the research period ranging from 1985 to 2012. The results of the research found that the use of FDIs can deliver a high significance to the economy of the countries. Nistor (2015) established a model for measuring the FDI inflow in the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries include nations from Africa, Europe, and Asia, like South Africa, Russia, and China. It was explained by Nistor (2015) that the FDI and the economic growth in the selected countries were determined through the factors of consumer price index and foreign exchange rate in the countries.
It has been identified that FDI often has a positive impact on the economic growth of certain countries (ref). Further, Pegkas (2015) conducted a study on determining the effect of FDI on the EG of the Eurozone countries. Modified and dynamic OLS tests were implied in the collected data for the period 2002 – 2012. It was determined in the research that FDI is the main factor that affects the EG of the Eurozone countries. On the other hand, it was argued by Jugurnath, Chuckun, and Fauzel (2016) that the increased implication of FDI in the economy of the country can damage the domestic or local firms of the country. This is because, when the FDI is conducted by the investors, different financial instruments that were owned by the country previously are shared with them. This is beneficial until the investors are making investments in that specific financial sector of the country’s economy. These results were determined after measuring the 32 Sub-Saharan countries in Africa from 2008 to 2014. The implied tests were OLS.
Kucharčíková et al. (2015) also explain that FDI and the country’s financial growth have a constructive or positive relationship. Kucharčíková et al. (2015) tested the impact of FDI on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries. This use of GDP was because it is the measure of the EG in all of the countries. Kucharčíková et al. (2015) used North-Western Slovakian countries to run panel data analysis and modified ordinary least square regression for testing such a relationship. The acquired results from the above research did not reduce most of the ambiguity regarding the impact of FDI on the EG of the countries. This is because there is a major economic difference between the practices of the developed and developing economies of the countries (Kucharčíková et al. 2015). The research conducted by Abdouli and Hammami (2017) was based on 17 Middle Eastern and North African countries for some time 1990-2012. Using fixed and random effects of OLS, the research identified that previously developed economic policies for economic growth are negatively impacted by FDI (Abdouli, and Hammami, 2017).
Iamsiraroj and Ulubaşoğlu (2015) also experienced that, in the UK, the use of FDI can help the economy in generating some positive spill-over so the economy can easily experience effective growth. However, the GDP of the UK plays an integral role in determining whether effective growth occurs or not. The study was conducted from 2000 to 2012. The measurement of GDP for determining economic growth was done by designing an equation, in which the variable ‘t’ determines the number of times the variables of the research were been used in determining the exact results of the research (Iamsiraroj and Ulubaşoğlu, 2015). It was determined by Roudi, Arasli, and Akadiri (2019) that the effect of FDI on GDP growth was positive and it was discussed that the FDI and the EG positively impacted the financial outcomes in the case of developed countries like the United Kingdom (UK). This study was conducted for the UK GDP data based on 1995-2014 data. Further, Santangelo (2018) also conducted a study to determine the FDI impacts on the EG for the 10 developed countries and found that there are certainly long and short-term benefits in the EG when FDI activities are performed. The study was conducted from 1998 to 2018. These long-term and short-term benefits of FDI are an increase in the employment numbers of the country; generating profits for the economy with long-term incentives; and, bringing many opportunities for the host country to include more investments from many other countries (Zhu et al., 2016).
To explain the positive impact of the FDI on the EG of the UK, Hussein and Ahmed (2019) analyzed Oman. Oman is a first-world country with an economy that is based on the main resource of oil. The revenues that are generated from extracting and selling oil to other countries had a direct relation to the growth in GDP. This growth in GDP of the country brings many investors from local and abroad to make investments in the country. With the FDI at a progressively high level, the political situation of the country also gets stable (Salahuddin, Gow, and Ozturk, 2015). This political stability in the region becomes the reason for an increased level of economic growth and development in Oman. There are many other factors like employment, imports, and exports that have an impact the economic growth (Alraja, Hammami, and Al Samman, 2016).
Saidi, Mbarek, and Amamri (2018) conducted research for determining the correlation between the FDI practices and EG of the 10 Asian countries. These 10 Asian countries were analyzed for checking the impact of FDI, employment, exports, and imports on their economic growth. The results of the research indicate that there was a positive connection between the discussed factors of employment, import and export, and FDI on the economic well-being of a few countries in Asia (Kirti and Prasad, 2016). In the research conducted by Omri et al. (2015) for identifying the impact of the FDI on the EG of five developed countries, it was mentioned that the FDIs have a positive and optimistic influence on the economy of the country. It was further established by Omri et al. (2015) that the increased FDI in the country of the UK can help increase economic growth practices. This is because the UK is experiencing Brexit that had negatively impacted the economic growth of the country.
Chapter Summary
The FDI has been described as a process that is used by the investors of one country to assist businesses in a foreign land. The investment can be either horizontal or vertical. It is said that FDI is the main variable that stimulates economic growth in a country. Investment from abroad brings a change in the operations of the developing country as technological advancements take place in the country and financial resources are provided for the business operations. Investors’ withdrawal from a country can have severe impacts on the economy as unemployment will rise and the GDP of a country will take a significant hit and will reduce.
A positive relationship can be observed between the two variables that are FDI and economic development. Growth in the economy is associated with the GDP level of the country and the relationship is also dependent on the status of progress of the country. A developed country with an established infrastructure can make better use of the FDI than a developing country. In the UK, the FDI can help create a positive spillover effect which helps the economy experience growth. The investment made into a foreign country has both short-term and long-term impacts. These impacts are related to the increase in employment level in the country, long-term profit-making plans, and many other opportunities to use the investment in such a way that it attracts additional investment from other countries or investors. As more research was carried out it was evident that there was a positive relationship between FDI and the financial growth variables. Similarly, in the case of the UK, political instability in the country will lead to negative outcomes in terms of development, even if FDI causes economic expansion.
METHODOLOGY
The research discusses the UK economy in detail and the role of FDI in causing economic growth. The variables that were also impacting the economic growth were the country’s Gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic savings (GDS), consumer price index (CPI), and exchange rate. These mentioned variables describe the ability of the economy for making successful growth. To determine the actual effect of the FDI on economic growth, the current research divides FDI into two parts of FDI inflows and FDI outflows. The data used in the research was from 1971 to 2017. World Bank records were used as the source of data. The data was of a time series nature and is based in the UK. Several tools were used to analyze the data that included descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis, and graphical analysis to understand the role of the variables during the specified period.
The variables to be mentioned in the research included the following
GDP growth rate: it estimates the rate of growth in the production level of the economy.
GNI growth rate: it quantifies the rate at which the value of citizen-made products plays a role in increasing the economy
Gross National Savings Growth Rate: the rate at which the national savings are increasing in the country is measured in it.
FDI Inflow: investment by foreign nationals
FDI outflow: investment by locals in foreign companies.
Consumer price index (CPI): weighted average prices paid by the individuals of the country for supporting the economic functions.
Foreign exchange rate: currency rate paid by one country to purchase the single unit of currency of other countries.
The GDP growth level, the gross national income level, and the GDSs have been volatile over the past years with the GDP growth level reaching negative during the early 2010s as there was a financial crisis all over the world. The housing prices were severely affected as they reached one of their lowest points in many years. In 2016 as political instability rose because Britain decided to exit from the European Union, the GDP growth and the GNI of the country were severely impacted. Reports suggest that Brexit caused the level of trade to also decline. There is no specific trend that could be detected as the performance of the UK has been very inconsistent and volatile.
A descriptive statistics tool will be used to describe the data quantitatively and summarizes it as per the features of the information (Silverman, 2018). It will help in sampling out the data which is distributed over 47 years and variables like GDP growth, GNI, and economic growth needs to be assessed by the descriptive statistic tool. This will help understand the trend and reach a conclusion about the behavior of the data (Ivezic et al., 2019).
The correlation was studied to analyze the relationship between the dependent and independent variable which in this research is the FDI and economic growth. The significance level was determined to analyze the relationship between the two given variables (McCormick and Salcedo, 2017). The level of correlation is determined by its magnitude which ranges from -1 to +1. 0 means no correlation, +1 means perfectly correlated, and -1 meaning negatively correlated (Hox, Moerbeek, and Van de Schoot, 2017). The hypothesis was formed to test whether the two variable is correlated. The hypothesis that was made is as follows:
Ho: there is no relation between FDI, CPI, exchange rate, and economic growth
H1: there is a relation between FDI, CPI, exchange rate, and economic growth
Following this research methodology, the research objectives will be achieved.
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
Introduction
After completing the methodology section by describing the data collection and analytical techniques of research. The current section provides the analysis of results acquired by analyzing the data.
Results
Descriptive Statistics
The first section of results is based on the descriptive statistics developed from the collected data. The developed table of descriptive statistics for the data are shared below in Table 1:
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive Statistics | |||||||
| N | Mean | Std. Deviation | Skewness | Kurtosis | ||
Statistic | Statistic | Statistic | Statistic | Std. Error | Statistic | Std. Error | |
FDI-Net Inflow | 47 | 2.878 | 2.617 | 1.702 | .347 | 2.015 | .681 |
FDI-Net Outflow | 47 | 3.696 | 3.965 | 1.655 | .347 | 3.778 | .681 |
GDP Growth | 47 | 2.266 | 2.114 | -.977 | .347 | 1.469 | .681 |
GNI | 47 | 2.225 | 2.211 | -.797 | .347 | .789 | .681 |
Gross Domestic Savings | 47 | 14.689 | 1.930 | -.101 | .347 | .833 | .681 |
CPI | 47 | 62.988 | 33.299 | .016 | .347 | -1.059 | .681 |
Exchange rate | 47 | 97.739 | 9.678 | .112 | .347 | -1.227 | .681 |
Valid N (listwise) | 47 |
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The above-developed Table 1 of descriptive statistics is based on the secondary data acquired for 47 years starting from 1971 and ending in 2017. The determined mean values from Table 1 explain the fact that the FDI inflow has a lower mean in comparison to the FDI outflow. This also depicts that the UK makes more FDI in other countries in comparison to the FDI done in the UK. Further, table 1 also explains the fact that the actual values. The developed values of Kurtosis for most of the variables are positive which also explains that the developed bell curve will be normal. Yet the negative Kurtosis values of the CPI and the exchange rate explain that the curve will be a bit flat from the top.
Correlation Analysis
After the successful development of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis is performed for determining the association among the studied variables. The developed correlation analysis of the collected data (Table 2) is shared on the next page.
Table 2: Correlation analysis
Correlations | ||||||||
| FDI-Net Inflow | FDI-Net Outflow | GDP Growth | GO | Gross Domestic Savings | CPI | Exchange rate | |
FDI-Net Inflow | Pearson Correlation | 1 | .691** | .035 | .028 | .336* | .460** | .289* |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .000 | .813 | .853 | .021 | .001 | .049 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
FDI-Net Outflow | Pearson Correlation | .691** | 1 | .187 | .198 | .368* | .163 | .431** |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .000 | .207 | .183 | .011 | .273 | .002 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
GDP Growth | Pearson Correlation | .035 | .187 | 1 | .977** | .406** | -.118 | .056 |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .813 | .207 | .000 | .005 | .428 | .708 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
GO | Pearson Correlation | .028 | .198 | .977** | 1 | .387** | -.125 | .060 |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .853 | .183 | .000 | .007 | .402 | .690 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
Gross Domestic Savings | Pearson Correlation | .336* | .368* | .406** | .387** | 1 | .349* | .244 |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .021 | .011 | .005 | .007 | .016 | .099 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
CPI | Pearson Correlation | .460** | .163 | -.118 | -.125 | .349* | 1 | -.017 |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .001 | .273 | .428 | .402 | .016 | .910 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
Exchange rate | Pearson Correlation | .289* | .431** | .056 | .060 | .244 | -.017 | 1 |
Sig. (2-tailed) | .049 | .002 | .708 | .690 | .099 | .910 | ||
N | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | |
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). | ||||||||
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). |
From the above-developed correlation analysis table, except for CPI, the correlation among every studied variable is positive. This means that when there is an increase in one variable of research, the value of another research variable increases proportionately. Whereas, when the consumer price index is changed, it hurts GDP growth. For example, the Pearson correlation coefficient value between FDI net-inflow and GDP growth (ED) is 0.035.
Regression Analysis
For conducting the regression analysis, the dependent and independent variables of research are GDP Growth (EG) and FDI-inflow, FDI-outflow, CPI, and Exchange rate respectively. As the dependent variable of the current research is GDP growth; therefore only single regression will be applied to the mentioned variables. The application of the regression test produces the model summary table (Table 3).
Table 3: Model Summary.
Model Summary | |||||
Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. The error in the Estimate | Durbin-Watson |
1 | .252a | .064 | -.026 | 2.1406 | 1.289 |
a. Predictors: (Constant), Exchange rate, CPI, FDI-Net Outflow, FDI-Net Inflow | |||||
b. Dependent Variable: GDP Growth |
The model summary table helps the researchers in explaining the power of the relationship among the independent and dependent variables of the study. The important value to establish focus is the value of R-Square, which is 0.064. This means that every independent variable of the research can cause a change in the GDP growth rate. The rest of the changes in the GDP growth are due to other factors of the economy. Moreover, the value of R from table 3 explains the 25.2% fitness of the developed model. This value is also supported by the value of 1.289 which displays a positive auto-correlation among the research variables.
Further, a graph of regression standardized residuals was developed among the variables that were included in the regression analysis.
Picture 1: Regression residuals.
From the above develop graph of the regression residuals, it was observed that the curve is positively raised from the middle due to positive values of Durbin-Watson value of 1.289. This middle raise among the values was possible because the researchers had observed a positive auto-correlation among the chosen variables of research. This means that the FDI, exchange rate, and EG are positively connected.
ANOVA test
Table 4: ANOVA table.
ANOVA | ||||||
Model | Sum of Squares | Df | Mean Square | F | Sig. | |
1 | Regression | 13.079 | 4 | 3.270 | .714 | .587b |
Residual | 192.459 | 42 | 4.582 | |||
Total | 205.538 | 46 |
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a. Dependent Variable: GDP Growth | ||||||
b. Predictors: (Constant), Exchange rate, CPI, FDI-Net Outflow, FDI-Net Inflow |
While referring to Table 4, it is observed that the ‘Sig’ value of the conducted regression analysis in Table 3 is ‘0.587’; which exceeds the acceptance threshold of α<0.05. This suggests that there is a greater likelihood that an insignificant impact can be observed. However, this regression result is still dependent on the table of coefficients. The coefficient table (Table 5) explains the impact of this regression model.
Table 5: Coefficient table.
Coefficients | ||||||
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | t | Sig. | ||
B | Std. Error | Beta | ||||
1 | (Constant) | 3.349 | 3.541 |
| .946 | .350 |
FDI-Net Inflow | -.081 | .191 | -.100 | -.421 | .676 | |
FDI-Net Outflow | .157 | .119 | .295 | 1.321 | .194 | |
CPI | -.008 | .011 | -.121 | -.697 | .489 | |
Exchange rate | -.010 | .036 | -.044 | -.267 | .791 | |
a. Dependent Variable: GDP Growth |
From Table 5, it is observed that the value of the unstandardized coefficient (B) is negative for the FDI net inflow, CPI, and exchange rate. This means that increase in these variables can reduce economic growth. Whereas, the value of the unstandardized coefficient (B) for FDI net outflow is positive explaining an increase in economic growth. This fact is also acclaimed by the standardized coefficient (Beta) for all independent variables of research, explaining the movement of relationships in the respective directions. The sig values of all independent variables are insignificant for accepting the H0 of the current research that describes no relation between FDI, CPI, and exchange rate. Therefore, the H0 of the current research is accepted and hence, the HI is accepted as the research result. The H0 of the research identifies there is no relationship between the FDI and EG of the UK.
Discussion
It is observed by Bermejo and Werner (2018) that foreign investments are made in the country when the investors observe an increase in their GDP. Thus, it is very hard to find such investors who are willing to invest in those countries that are experiencing no economic growth. Moreover, the governing policies of the country are also making an impact on the investment-making approach of the investors (Nyuur, Ofori, and Debrah, 2016). In the United Kingdom (UK), after the Second World War (WWII), the government of the UK had been using natural resources for making recovery from the effects of war. The economic events conducted after the year 1980 have supported the growth of the UK economy as a whole. This is because, the government of the UK had been supportive of foreign organizations for taking their part in the economic growth of the country (Jimborean and Kelber, 2017).
This step taken by the Government of the UK toward economic growth brings an increased amount of investment from other countries. This type of increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country also starts the exploitation of different natural and government resources. Therefore, the government officials of the UK try to impose certain restrictions on the FDI inclusion in the economy for growth practices (Thirlwall and Pacheco, 2017). Still, Jones and Wren, (2016) observed that fact there is a positive relationship between the FDI activities performed in the economy and the economic growth of the country. This economic growth of the UK through increased practices of FDI was supportive of delivering innovative practices in the country. It was further identified that the increased FDI practices in the economy had increased the production of the service sector of the country (Jones and Wren, 2016). It is also discussed by Thirlwall and Pacheco, (2017) that the increase in the production of the services sector of the country also increases the level of purchasing of the consumers that directly results in the increment of the price index. This increment in the consumer price index leads to increased inflation. This inflation then eventually reduces the CPI of the consumer.
Chapter Summary
The current chapter was developed for conducting and analyzing the results from the collected data. The results obtained from the descriptive statistics explain the positive values of the collected data. The positive values of the collected data were tested through the correlation analysis that also comes up with a positive relationship among the studied variables. The chapter also performs the regression analysis that supports the level of relationship that exists among the research variables. The regression analysis of the variables also establishes the ANOVA table that determines the acceptance or rejection of the developed null hypothesis. From the developed results of the ANOVA analysis, the null hypothesis (Ho) of the research was rejected based on the comparison made between the acquired and the threshold value of sig (α) value. In the end, it can be summarized that the research must consider the alternative hypothesis (Hl).
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusion
The current research was conducted for understanding the impact of FDI on the economic growth (EG) of the country. The country was specified as the United Kingdom (UK). The research problem was identified as the non-availability of the data for the selected variables of the research. The research conducts an empirical search for the development of the literature review. In this manner, the current research was able to identify the importance of FDI in the economic growth of different countries. The research also develops null and alternative hypotheses for testing the collected data. The collected data was secondary and was based on the independent research variable of FDI, and the dependent variable of economic growth (EG).
The developed results of the research accept the null hypothesis of the research that was developed for testing no relationship between FDI and EG of the UK. This rejection was based on the findings from regression analysis in terms of the ANOVA test and coefficient tables. These results also help the readers and the researchers in understanding the actual impact of FDI on the economic growth of the country.
Limitations of Research
The following research is also subjected to certain research limitations. These limitations restricted the research to the determined results. The first limitation is based on the selection of the single factor of FDI for determining the economic growth of a country like the UK. There are many other factors along with FDI that support economic growth in countries like the UK. Secondly, the current research is also limited to conducting secondary quantitative research on the chosen research variables. The use of mixed research methods can increase the effectiveness of the conducted research through many other qualitative and primary factors.
Recommendations
For future researchers on similar topics, it is highly recommended that they must look into other factors of the economy along with FDI for supporting the economic growth in the UK.
It is also recommended to the researchers that they must look for the economic growth practices and other related factors of economic growth after the decision of Brexit that is been affirmed in the recent past.
It is also recommended to the financial researchers of the country that a strong financial policy must be developed and proposed to the Government of the UK so that they can introduce economic growth practices.
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