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Background Of The Study
In the current age of rapid advancement and development, China is considered as one of the fastest-growing economies that have captured different global markets through its excessive foreign direct investment (Zhang et al., 2017). The study conducted by Liu et al (2017) specified that the ‘going out strategy’ adopted by China in 2001 enabled the domestic firms of the country to expand their business globally and participate in cross-border investments. In 2017 china's outward FDI investment amounted to 138.293 billion USD (WorldBank, 2020). Pakistan is one of the leading investment hubs for China due to its peaceful cross-border relationships and friendly alliance (Kang et al., 2018). According to the state bank of Pakistan, China has become the top leading foreign investor in Pakistan by investing 501 million USD in 2019 for the development of the economic sector of the country (Xinhua, 2020). Foreign direct investments of China have always worked as the driving source for the economy of Pakistan due to the establishment of different development projects in the country that took place under the CPEC alliance (Huang, 2016).
China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) is the alliance between China and Pakistan that has helped in initiating the different infrastructure and development projects in Pakistan such as the Sahiwal power plant, Gwadar port, Peshawar-Karachi motorway, and East Bay expressway (CPEC, 2020). Furthermore, Belt and Road Initiative was another major infrastructure development project of China started in 2013 that aims to connect Asia with Europe and Africa through marine networks and motorways (BRI, 2020). Karakoram Highway, Gwadar Port, Karachi circular railway, and the project of a direct transmission line from Lahore to Matiari are major projects undergoing the Belt road initiative of china in Pakistan (SCMP, 2020).
The study conducted by Liu et al (2017) specified that market openness and geographical location are major determinants that encourage China to invest substantially in Pakistan. Kolstad and Wiig (2012) asserted that market size, geographic benefits, demand, and inflation are the determinants of outward FDI in China. China has always invested in Projects in Pakistan by focusing on the long-term benefits they can obtain from it (Khan, 2014). Gwadar Port is one of the major elements of CPEC and a potential investment of China in Pakistan because it can help to develop alternative shipping to transport the oil in China (SCMP, 2020). China is heavily reliant on the Malacca Strait shipping route to trade oil in china and Gwadar port lies near the Hormuz strait which is the leading oil shipping route in and out of the Persian Gulf (SCMP, 2020).
Aim and Objectives
The aim of the following study is focused on assessing the determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment and an evaluation of the Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan
To study the significance of the foreign direct investment in Pakistan
To identify the determinants that drive the Chinese outward foreign direct investment in Pakistan
To analyze the business strategy of China regarding the expansion in Pakistan through the Belt and Road initiative.
To study the risk associated with receiving excessive foreign direct investments.
To recommend the strategies for the government of Pakistan to manage the FDI from china efficiently.
Research Questions
What are the determinants that drive the Chinese outward foreign direct investment in Pakistan?
What is the Belt and Road Initiative of china in Pakistan?
What is the business strategy of China to expand in Pakistan?
What is the risk associated with receiving excessive foreign direct investments?
Research Problem
Wintour (2018) reported that China is doing a great deal in investing in the development projects of Pakistan. However, the heavy reliance of Pakistan on china can create a negative impact on the internal stability of Pakistan. Excessive investment and involvement of china in key projects of Pakistan can lead the locals of the country to lose the ownership of their assets to china or get suppressed by the Chinese investors (Duan et al, 2018). Therefore, this study can contribute to resolving this issue by studying the determinants that drive china's outward FDI in Pakistan.
Research Scope
This study mainly strives at addressing the determinant of the Chinese outward investment and evaluating the OBOR initiative in Pakistan. The main scope is to address the determinant responsible to drive economic progression in Pakistan. The study attempt as addressing the impact of the CPEC initiative and quantifying the impact through the research method. The study mainly concentrates on the progression that is achieved in the context of Pakistan thus its scope is restricted to Pakistan and Chinese initiatives were taken over there. Since the Outwards FDI, is a concept the study is mainly restricted to concentrating on determinants of FDI in the context of the OBOR initiative in Pakistan.
Method
In this study, a mix of an ed-method research design has been selected because it offers the diversity to use of both qualitative and quantitative research paradigms. A secondary data collection method has been used to study the determinants that drive the FDI in Pakistan and evaluate the belt and road initiative. Qualitative design help in analyzing the risk, opportunities, and impact of determinants associated with the FDI of China in Pakistan. Quantitative analysis has been employed to analyze the effectiveness of the FDI of china and the belt road initiative on the economy of Pakistan by studying the different variables such as GDP, employment rate, and national income.
Structure Of Study
The underlying study constitutes five chapters named introduction, literature, methodology, Finding/analysis, and conclusion sequentially. The introduction covers the detail about the background, aim, method and problem addressed in the study. The literature section covers a detailed discussion of the topic using previous studies. The methodology includes the techniques and methods used to conduct the study. The finding and analysis chapter covers the investigation and results of the data collected. Lastly, the conclusion and recommendation chapter summarises the study and concludes with recommendations.
Chinese Business Expansion in Pakistan
The China-Pakistan economic corridor is a bilateral economic relationship between Pakistan and China, where the collaboration and coordination would be done in the trade, energy, and infrastructure and trade sectors. Raza et al., (2018), it is highlight that China is mainly relying on outward foreign direct investment to expand its business activities in Pakistan. The economic development supports China to establish trade relationships with central Asia, and gain quick access to the European market. The access and linkages to Gawadar reduce the China distance allowing it to reduce the transportation cost and gain widespread access. According to Ullah (2018), the business expansion in Pakistan is an attempt to transfer Chinese innovation to Pakistani firms.
It is financial aid for Pakistan’s decade-long struggle economy, which will also allow Pakistan to be benefited from the synergy, created through working with h Chinese count part. The mina threat to the business of Pakistan is exerted by the insurgency of the neighboring countries. In addition to the above statement, the study conducted by Yu (2017) explores the Chinese motivation toward the One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR). It is revealed it is part of China’s foreign policy to build stable economic relationships and take advantage of the strategic location. The study denotes that OBOR is not just investment cooperation and economic interest, rather it is also focused on the political and strategy of becoming a valuable leader of central Asia. OBOR will support China in resolving the industrial overcapacity and difficulty in technological up-gradation at home.
CPEC and its Significance
CPEC mainly has a range of strategic and economic significance for China and Pakistan. Iqbal, (2017) states that the project has a great geopolitical and geo economical potential, it would provide major interconnectivity across Asia and the Middle Eastern region. The project would hold significance to uplift the Islamabad and northern region to represent south Asia, it would exert a major strategic influence from China’s ends on the south Chinese region. The estimated cost of the project is US$ 75 Billion, out of which the US$45 Billion ensure to improve the regional optional by connecting the Gilgit-Baltistan region to the Kashgar region. The main significance to China can be explained by the fact that current china transports 80% of the Oil from strait Malacca to Shanghai which is spread to 16,000 km and takes 2-3 months, however, CPEC coming into play will reduce the distance 5000w. That ultimately helps in reducing the transportation cost. The major Energy projects will produce energy up to 16,400-megawatt solving the major energy crisis. Apart from the economic development, CPEC holds major Socioeconomic opportunities for the Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan region. According to Ali, (2016), it can merely be indicated that CPEC has the potential to showcase productivity equivalent to 17% of Pakistan’s GPD of 2015, the project would heal the unemployment situation by creating 700,000 jobs.
Lessons from Chinese Investment in Africa
Ayodele and Sotola, (2014) explore the Chinese investment in the African region, which is focused on increasing the FDI in the African region, promoting the infrastructural development, stabilizing the prices of the African products & commodities, and capitalizing on the natural resources that are found in Africa. The key driver of the economic corridor in Africa was to exploit the vast reserve of Oil & Gas in Africa, the second major motive it’s Africa is seen to be a potential market for the Chinese products and importantly the privatization of the enterprise in China that look forwards towards a potential investment. The research denotes that the Chinese seek to address the mutual benefit, in the African region.
Impact of CPEC on Pakistan's economy
When it comes to assessing the impact of CPEC on the economy of Pakistan, one notable study conducted by Ali et al. (2017) explores the impact of CPEC on the Pakistan economy, the research denotes that with CPEC working at its full potential Pakistan enhances the GDP and its exports that would directly reflect on the economy. CPEC can support improving the GDP by 6%, which would eventually improve the unemployment situation in the country. The CPEC would also exert a positive impact on the bilateral trade due to the enhancement that would be made in Gawadar port. Apart from the economic benefits, the CPEC will also have a social impact on the creation of job opportunities and improving the standard of living. Chairman Gawadar port authority (GPA), states that the port itself has the potential of creating 40,000 jobs. Much of the Job creation from CPEC would possibly happen during the construction stages of the projects. This research sheds light on the outwards foreign direct investment that China is mainly initiating in the form of the OBOR initiative. Economic development and economic development can be viewed from the Rostow linear stage development. It is revealed that economic progression happens in five stages, the stages mainly help in determining the stage Pakistan and China are on, and how long would it take. The stages are the traditional society stage, where agriculture is important and much of the processes are labor-intensive based. Next is the take-off stage where the process of industrialization cultivates, technological innovation happens in the drive to maturity stage and high mass consumption is the final stage (Kindleberger, Tella, and Tella, 2016). Pakistan is current at the take-off stage where there is the presence of an industrial revolution; however, it slows because of political intervention. The mega project will also facilitate the exchange of culture and tradition, plus it would also open a route to safe tourism to the Northern areas of Pakistan.
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Research Philosophy
Pragmatism research philosophy has been used in the underpinned research it allows evaluating the different aspects of study using different methods and technique that helps to reach a valid conclusion (Kumar, 2019).
Research Design
In this study, a mixed-method research design has been selected because it offers the diversity to use of both qualitative and quantitative research paradigms. The mixed-method was suitable for this study because it allows for comparing the different findings and reaching accurate results (Flick, 2015).
Data Collection and Analysis
A secondary data collection method has been used to study the determinants that drive the FDI in Pakistan and evaluate the belt and road initiative. The secondary data collection method has been used because of this study demands extracting the information related to the FDI investments of china from existing resources and reports. Therefore, in this study quantitative information has been gathered from Journal articles, websites, reports, World Bank, OECD website, and Statista. Qualitative design helped in analyzing the risk, opportunities, and impact of determinants associated with the FDI of China in Pakistan. Quantitative analysis has been employed to analyze the effectiveness of the FDI of china and the belt road initiative on the economy of Pakistan by studying the different variables such as GDP, employment rate, and national income. The data from the year 2010 to 2019 to study the influence of china's FDI and the belt road initiative on the economy of Pakistan can help to address the research problem of whether excessive FDI of china is a risk to Pakistan or not. The content analysis technique has been used to analyze and evaluate qualitative information because it helps to explore the different aspects of the underlying phenomenon in detail (Mackey and Gass, 2015). However, for analyzing quantitative data time-series data analysis techniques have been used.
CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
Introduction
The following chapter is based on the analysis of the study using the secondary data for foreign direct investment in Pakistan for the belt and road initiative. The chapter has been divided into different sections according to the requirements of research and for gaining the results afterward. The study has been for assessing the significance of FDI in Pakistan and its determinants that can drive the Chinese for carrying out the investment activities in Pakistan. The chapter has also discussed the business strategy toward expansion in Pakistan through the belt. Further analysis has been provided as under;
Content Analysis
Foreign Direct Investment In Pakistan
FDI inflows have not been very high in the country after the peaking fiscal year 2007-08. According to the report of UNCTAD (2019), the FDI has grown to 2.3 billion in 2018. Moreover, according to the assessment of the first half, the total ratio of FDI has reached USD 41 billion (13.4% of GDP) by the end of the year 2018. Moreover, according to the report of the State Bank of Pakistan (2019), the FDI inflows have raised by 63% according to the second half (July-dec 2019) and has reached USD 1.34 billion against the USD 798.8 million according to the report of the previous year within the same time of second half. According to the assessment of Nordeatrade (2020), the country has a huge domestic population of nearly 207 million. Moreover, the level of poverty has also been decreasing with the increase in FDI within the country.
Pakistan has also faced massive growth within the year 2017 by 5.2%. However, according to the arguments of Tradingeconomics (2020), the country also has a massive security threat from the US and other Western countries. The security threats have been one of the major issues for the initiation of the OECD Anti-corruption convention in the country.
The statistics show that the country Pakistan has an average of 162.51 USD billion and reached 1262.90 USD Million in June of 2008. However, the country has also faced a low record of -367.50 USD Million in October of 2018.
Determinants That Drives The Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment In Pakistan
According to the analysis of Rippa (2019), the Chinese and Pakistani trade relation is effective which has led China to carry out the means of investment within the country. Some of the major reasons and determinants that have been attracting the investment measures are energy, trade, infrastructure, and other sections. China has found the major transportation access from Gwadar which is an innovative spread for the firms in Pakistan. According to The Express Tribune (2016), China has supported Pakistan in terms of FDI in the year 2015-16 respectively. The net inflow is nearly $600 million for FDI in Pakistan. Now due to one of the major reasons for having an economic corridor (CPEC), China has been investing a huge share within the country for better trade opportunities in the future according to Thediplomat.com. (2020).
Business Strategy Of China Regarding The Expansion In Pakistan Through Belt And Road Initiative
The projects that are there under the belt and road initiative (BRI) are mainly designed by the government of China for developing the means of infrastructure, transport, energy, and IT and communication. It has been designed for the development and betterment of the industrial parks and the growth of the two countries. According to the assessment by Hussain (2017) these belt and road initiative has been designed for the betterment of the country and for gaining better sustainability in the future.
According to the analysis of Ramay (2016), there is an infrastructure need within the country that is effective for the IT and communication system within the country.
China’s global infrastructure projects are thereby millions that have been from dollars 2005 to 2017. The total investment is there within the projects that have a sum of USD 480.3 billion according to Khursheed et al (2019). Additionally, the construction projects in China are smaller within the OECD countries. Therefore, these belt initiatives have been gaining much more importance as it has been creating opportunities for further telecommunication and IT.
Risk Associated With Receiving Excessive Foreign Direct Investments
According to the assessment of Nielsen, Asmussen, and Weatherall (2017), it has been observed that the excessive foreign direct investment has been effective for the countries as it has been increasing the means and opportunities for the businesses. However, Sarkodie and Strezov (2019) have argued that the excessive means of investment can also be risky for the countries as it creates the aspects of hindrance and domestic investment for further businesses. Moreover, the countries also face the issue of having a negative influence on the exchange rate of the country. Furthermore, Pakistan is a country that is having a low exchange rate. The excessive use of foreign investment can cause a major decrease in the exchange rate in the country respectively.
According to the above-mentioned statistics, it has been observed that Pakistan has been gaining increased FDI from China which is fruitful for the projects on one hand and also can ruin the country’s performance on the other hand. The stats belong from Apr 19 to Mar 20 for the whole year and have affected the company’s performance at a higher rate.
Discussion
The following research is based on different objectives that have been designed by the researcher to achieve the results. Moreover, it has been observed that the researcher has achieved the objectives of the research by assessing the secondary data that has been collected from different sources. The first objective of the research was to study the significance of foreign direct investment in Pakistan. The researcher has assessed the following factor by investigating the factors of FDI from China through the means of belt and road projects in the country. The study has been supported by the discussions of Khursheed et al (2019). Additionally, the researcher has also aimed to identify the determinants that drive the Chinese outward foreign direct investment in Pakistan. These determinants are found to be the ease of trade, transport, telecommunication, and IT that can be effective for dealing with the use of trade routes in China. Another research objective that has been designed by the researcher is to study the risk associated with receiving excessive foreign direct investments. The researcher has discussed that the excessive use of FDI in the country may affect the current economy and can also affect the exchange rate in the country at a higher rate. The researcher has also provided the fact supported by the discussions of Rippa (2019), that the excessive FDI from other countries can also ruin the performance of the country and its exchange rate.
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The following chapter has provided the conclusion and recommendations of research that has been provided above on the topic of the determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment and an evaluation of the belt and road initiative in Pakistan. The chapter has highlighted the summarised findings and major key points that have been concluded by the researcher after conducting the assessment.
Summarised Findings
The following study is based on the belt and road projects that are being performed in China and Pakistan for providing ease in terms of transport, trade, and other means of communication in the two countries. The research has adopted the findings that the FDI inflows have raised by 63% according to the second half (July-dec 2019) and has reached USD 1.34 billion against the USD 798.8 million according to the report of the previous year within the same time of the second half. The researcher has provided the findings that the country also has a massive security threat from the US and other Western countries. The increasing investment in the country for the building of different projects is effective in one aspect. However, the excessive use of these investments can be poor for the countries in terms of gaining a poor impact on the company’s performance and its exchange rate respectively.
Conclusion
After conducting the assessment on the following topic, it has been concluded that the countries Pakistan and China have been looking forward to the inauguration and building of belt and road programs within the country as for generating more profit and increase the means of trade in the countries. The port itself has the potential of creating 40,000 jobs. Much of the Job creation from CPEC would possibly happen during the construction stages of the projects. It has been further conceded that the rate of FDI has been increasing in Pakistan which may affect the current performance of the country and its exchange rate. However, the increasing rate of this FDI can also ruin the country’s image for further business and investment.
Recommendations
Based on the study that has been carried out, it has been recommended that the country of Pakistan shall make interventions for increasing the means of business and generating higher returns. Moreover, it shall also reduce the FDI rate from Chin or make certain partnerships in the projects. In addition, the initiatives should be taken regarding physical infrastructure as BRI can help in stimulating FDI growth along with the GDP and trade growth of Pakistan. Furthermore, the investment allocation should also be taken into account with the great heterogeneity which is expected in the different geographic areas and projects. There should be effective implementation of the BRI initiative in Pakistan as it will help in the poverty alleviation and social development of the country and further provides different business and employment opportunities that can enhance their income level. In addition, the rural areas of Pakistan will be helped greatly by this initiative as it will create drastic changes along with bringing infrastructure development and prosperity.
Future implications
The following research is based on the case of FDI and growth in the country of Pakistan. Future research can also be carried out on the topic of growth and economic downturn within the country. Additionally, the ideas for increasing the revenue of the country can also be improved.
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