Economics

Question 1: What Role Does Persuasion Play in Helping Parties Capture the Median Voter?

Andrew Hindmoor (2005) posits that Anthony Downs's (1957) Economic Theory of Democracy offers more than its widely recognized assumptions and predictive analysis pertaining to the median voter theorem. While the median voter model has made significant inroads in political frameworks, its success in capturing the median voter and securing the majority can be better understood beyond the quantitative assumptions and calculated predictions at the core of the theorem. Hindmoor (2005), in his 2005 article titled "Reading Downs: New Labour and an Economic Theory of Democracy," contends that New Labour's actions and policies held a more profound significance than what can be discerned from the voter theorem alone.

The median voter model suggests that political parties can secure the median voter and maximize their votes by adjusting their ideological priorities and influencing the voters' perceptions. In 1997, New Labour won the election after four consecutive defeats under the Thatcher government, marking a significant shift from a left-wing philosophy to a more moderate, centrist approach. By realigning their political stance toward the centre of liberalism, the political party achieved dominance by effectively aligning their policies with the voters' beliefs. This demonstrates a broader perspective than the assumptions outlined by Downs for the median voter model, which typically reveals only one dimension of New Labour's political approach.

In his theory, Downs (1957) discusses the power of persuasion in gaining voter confidence, and these arguments, though not explicitly stated, can be extended to support New Labour's political trajectory. It is essential to first clarify Downs' assumptions for the median voter theorem and how they relate to New Labour's political ideology and strategy, indirectly underscoring the role of persuasion in securing the majority vote. Downs (1957) primarily argues that political parties and voters, operating in conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information, have the opportunity to use persuasion and influence to bring about paradigm shifts and alter voters' ideological preferences.

Today, the empirical and theoretical aspects highlighted by the median voter theorem are applied to political strategies and electoral contests, focusing on elements like candidate convergence and proximity voting. Downs' (1957) assumptions clearly emphasize the need for parties to adopt a more centrist approach to influence voters' mindsets and reshape their priorities. According to him, in an electoral contest with two parties, voter preferences can be mapped onto a one-dimensional left-right scale. Political parties, aiming to maximize votes, can position themselves at any point along this spectrum. Voters typically opt for the party closest to them on the political spectrum, with their preferences anchored in the information available about party policies and ideologies.

This aligns with the more straightforward and optimistic Rational Choice model that assesses and predicts political voting behaviour, akin to established economic models for evaluating or predicting consumer behaviour. These aspects shed light on voter psychology dynamics and the use of influence and persuasion by political parties to capture the median voter. Thus, a median voter is defined as a voter with an equal number of people to their "right" and "left." As described by Downs (1957: 114-141), the median voter model is a framework that primarily concerns the behaviour of political parties, rather than the feasibility of competition. It delves into areas of voter behaviour and party actions that can enhance voting efficiency. These core areas are elucidated through seven assumptions concerning party behaviour and voter preference dynamics.

The first assumption posits that "A political party is a 'team of men seeking to control the governing apparatus by gaining office in a duly constituted election" (Downs 1957: 25). In this view, there is no individual choice, as each party member shares common beliefs and goals. The second assumption reflects the voter's inclination to choose a particular party, suggesting that voter preferences are single-peaked and diverge monotonically from the party's ideology. Voter assessments of parties are grounded in the proximity of their beliefs to the policies of political parties, and as such, voter beliefs are considered exogenous to the actions of the party. Further assumptions assert that voter turnout reaches its maximum potential relative to eligible voters, parties are free to position themselves anywhere in the political landscape, and parties possess complete information about voter preferences and trends. Lastly, parties assume positions in parallel with other political parties without knowledge of their location, and they are motivated by the maximization of votes, which directly impacts their utility.

Figure 1: Median Voter Theorem (G-static, 2015)

Based on these seven assumptions, the predictive result of a two-party election will be convergence at the median of the voter preferences diaspora.

Although Anthony Downs's assumptions revealing elements like voter preferences, candidate policies, and candidate location significance above have been disputed following his work, they tend to highlight salient aspects of how political parties should behave and the actions to be undertaken for winning an electoral contest. According to Andrew Hindmoor (2005), the success of new labour in 1997 was attributed to their transition into a more centrist approach that bonded with the voter's beliefs and significantly influenced voting preferences. This transition did not require a major shift in policy as opposed to Downs theory since they maintained most of their policies. Their persuasive acts and the application of the new ideology, augmented through a successful electoral campaign, facilitated the shuffling of voters’ 1st and second-level preferences. Hindmoor's (2005) preferences formation reflects three levels of prioritized voter preferences that the political parties can use to capture the median voter through persuasion and policy formation. Following is the order of the preferences:

• 1st order: ideology, conception of the good society
• 2nd order: preferences over policies
• 3rd order: preferences between parties

Parties can persuade voters regarding their policies and how they transcribe to societal goals and community welfare, influencing their preferences between parties and preferences regarding policies. New Labor was able to persuade their voting pool about the merits of their policy. It achieved electoral success by applying aspects from the median voter's theorem, including adopting a more centrist approach and persuasive strategies.

Although the approach is effective, Downs's (1957) theorem nevertheless lacks predictive capacity. Then there are aspects like Asymmetric information regarding the median voter, voter turnout not exactly 100%, rational ignorance by voters, exogenous change of values or moving voter preferences and vested party members interested that are more self-centred. Further, Hindmoor's (2005) arguments overlook other aspects significant to electoral success, like the media's role and propagation's benefits relative to the election campaign. He also tends to overlook who the information supplier is and what are the vested interests.