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Download PDF FileIntroduction
The emergence of pandemics, epidemics, and financial crises in the international market has been categorized as once in a century or half challenges for businesses. The businesses have been affected by any disturbance in the market that may be triggered by epidemics, pandemics, and/or financial crises; whereas financial crises losses can be measured and calculated for which appropriate measures and actions have been taken by businesses to ensure they survive in hard times (Peckham, 2013). However, if the epidemics and pandemics take place then it is hard for the businesses to estimate the loss they could suffer throughout the period. The core reason behind this includes a common but unknown enemy to people around the world that may have been recognized but the world cannot immunize the population due to no prepared vaccines and medicines.
Similarly, Coronavirus (COVID-19) emerged first in China that remained the epicenter for the contagious virus China contained it entirely from Wuhan very professionally, but other countries mostly developed western countries have been failing to control the virus in Italy, Spain, Germany, and other high-tech countries have been under crises (Sam Wong, 2020). Meanwhile, the United States’ denial of the virus initially and inappropriate measures and guidelines for the travelers made it the epicenter of the coronavirus that has and has been killing more people than the 9/11 terrorist attack, Vietnam, and Korean conflicts (Dan Mangan, 2020). Therefore, the virus remains a major global pandemic today period the unknown; and since it is highly contagious more than 100 countries have restricted international travel, people are heading to home countries, and in those countries, people have been advised to practice social distancing where some countries have also locked down entire countries and have converted maximum possible usable places into the quarantine centers (Blue swan daily, 2019).
Businesses have been entirely affected by the virus throughout the world for which economic losses may not be measured due to fact that the hard time cannot be measured when this will end in the coming days but could take at least 18 months or more until a world gets a vaccine to the virus (Kuznia, 2020). In wake of this pandemic, the aviation industry, tourism industry, and hospitality industry have entirely been in a major crisis since people have been locked in their homes, travel restrictions, businesses disruption, and even bans on people’s movement within the country and their areas except for medical emergency (Bender et al., 2020). Under these conditions, investors and shareholders are extremely feared about their investment and to make further investments to support companies from falling collapse.
With this perspective and objective to guide investors, the following report has been prepared specifically for the Libyan Foreign Investment Company (LAFICO) which holds an 11% directly and 29% indirectly stake in the company. The report attempts to shed light on the previous epidemics, pandemics, and financial disruptions to analyze the current situation that could affect the International Hotel Investments PLC (IHI PLC) and that is there any opportunity for the investors to benefit from buying more shares and/or opting out of the investment.
History of Pandemics and Financial Crises
Epidemics and Pandemics
Asian Flu – 1957 to 1958
Asian flu was another pandemic wave of influenza that started in China and claimed the lives of more than 1 million people around the world, and the virus was later found associated with the avian flu viruses. The virus rapidly spread and the first international case was reported in February 1957 in Singapore and later affected Hong Kong, and coastal areas of the US in the summer leading to more than 1.1 million deaths throughout the world and alone 116000 deaths in the US (Jackson, 2009).
Swine Flu - 2009
Swine flu was a HIN1 new strain that was discovered in Mexico in the spring of 2009, and this virus infected 1.4 billion lives throughout the world and has been categorized as a pandemic killing near to half a million people. This virus was contagious among adults and children and 85% of deaths reported were aged below 65 years as reported by CDC. This virus was more unusual than casual flu and seasonal flu that has been causing death for the aged population over 65 years. However, the older population mainly over 65 age were immune to the swine flu and were not infected but rarely (Presanis et al., 2009). Meanwhile, today people are also vaccinated for the H1N1 virus along with the flu vaccine.
Ebola - 2014
Ebola is a deadly virus and contagious virus that spread in West Africa from 2014 to 2016 leading to 28600 reported cases and 11325 deaths. The first international case was reported in December of 2013 which spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone these countries were highly affected but a few cases were also reported from the US, Europe, Nigeria, Sen,ega,l and Mali (Frieden et al., 2014). Meanwhile, no cure has been found currently and it has also been discovered that bats are a source of the Ebola virus that first occurred in Sudan.
Zika Virus - 2015
Zika virus has turned epidemic for several years in Central America and South America since it remained unknown for the period. Later scientists discovered that it originated from mosquitos and can also be transmitted sexually in humans. However, the Zika virus was found to be harmful to unborn children causing defective births but is not harmful to children and adults (Campos et al., 2015). Meanwhile, central America and South America remains prime location for the virus in humid and warm weather in which mosquitos carry the virus.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) - 2019
Current coronavirus (COVID-19) or nCOV-2019, first emerged in the Wuhan, China in December, infecting 82,431 people and killing 3,322 patients mostly overaged or those with existing health conditions; through this 76,571 people have successfully recovered and became immune to the virus and China also completely contained the virus to zero-ground (WHO, 2020). However, since the virus was contagious and inappropriate measures of major countries mostly developed led to a worst-case scenario in which Iran and many European countries but as of today America remains an epicenter of virus due to a high number of cases (Tan, 2020). As of 2 April 2020, the virus has infected more than a million people in more than 185 countries and has caused more than 50,000 deaths so far (Arcgis, 2020). Meanwhile, no cure has been found but the data suggests that 85% of people have mild or no symptoms at all and becomes immune in 14 days without any special treatment. However, the older population including those with pre-existing health conditions are vulnerable to viruses, and the majority of the deaths have also taken place among the older population due to weakening the immune system (Wu and McGoogan, 2020). However, data from China suggests children are entirely immune to the virus.
Financial Crises
OPEC – Oil Crises
The crisis of oil began in 1973 during the Arab – Israeli conflict; the oil prices were skyrocketing as Arab nations halted the oil exports to the United States in retaliation for arms supplies to Israel during the conflict. The shortage of oil led to economic crises in the US and many other developed countries; and this led to very high inflation in those countries due to shortage of oil (Rustow, 1977). Therefore, it affected the entire supply chain system, tourism industry, and the aviation industry as well. Meanwhile, it took years for those countries to achieve a target level of inflation in the country.
Asian Crises
The Asian crisis took place in 1997 in Thailand and spread to the rest of the countries in East Asia where trading partners of the businesses were operating. The core reason behind the crises was the flow of capital from developed countries to Asia countries with optimism and overextension of credit which led to too much debt accumulation in those economies (Climent and Meneu, 2003). As result, a fixed exchange rate of Thailand to the US was abandoned due to a lack of foreign currency resources. The emergence of crises created a panic situation in the Asian financial markets that led to capital flight in which foreign investors opted out of billion dollars of investment. The East Asian governments were on the brink of bankruptcies that could also have led to the meltdown of global financial markets (Johnson et al., 2000). Hence, International Monetary Fund (IMF) had to step in and offer bailout packages for these governments to avoid a meltdown in global markets.
Global Financial Crises
The global financial crisis is also known as the sub-prime mortgage bond crisis or more often the housing bubble; that took place in 2008 that led to global financial crises and nearly all countries were affected to some extent. Lehman Brothers one of the largest investment banks collapsed overnight, many financial institutions were on the brink of collapse and nearly stock markets around the world had crashed (Obstfeld, 2012). Meanwhile, governments of respective countries stepped in to provide bailout packages to avoid further losses to the economy, and recovery of the market took almost a decade to recover from the crisis. This crisis has been categorized as one of the worst financial crises after the great depression; the core reason is that suddenly millions of jobs were wiped out and around $2 trillion was measured for the global economy (Claessens et al., 2010).
Global Economic Perspectives
The economic effect of a global pandemic can be observed in terms of loss of economic growth, and figure 1 demonstrates the economic prospects for 2020 old forecasts and new forecasts amid coronavirus and worldwide lockdowns
China remains the foremost victim of a downgrade as compared to other economies whereas with the latest numbers it is expected that China’s economy will grow by 4.9% than 5.7% as earlier forecasts (Lora Brown, Palumbo 2020). Similarly, it is also expected that the global economy to grow by 2.4% in 2020 rather than 2.9% as projected earlier. Figure 2 illustrates changes in the manufacturing activities in major economies worldwide.
Figure 2 Manufacturing Activities
China also remains the most affected economy from this pandemic but since China has announced zero-ground virus in Wuhan and has almost contained the virus from china though the new cases are travelers around the world, not locals. On the other hand, the US today has become an epicenter of viruses that have cases exceeding 0.2 million and more than 4000 deaths so far. Hence, this tends to have a serious effect on the US economy and consequently worldwide (Lora Brown, Palumbo 2020). Whereas the world’s major countries have also locked-down countries, small businesses have already halted operations and travel restrictions have made people to until to their homes.
In addition, the oil prices have reached to record low time after Russia and OPEC failed to reduce production; currently traded at $25 per barrel as of January 2020 it was at $63.05 per barrel which means it has lost more than 60% of value. Meanwhile, investors' sentiments have negatively affected the world’s largest stock markets where S&P dropped (28.8%), Nikkei (22.2%) DOW Jones (24.1%) (Lora Brown, Palumbo 2020). In addition to this, around 6.55 million people have filed Jobless claims in the United States which are 19 times higher than usual and FTSE 100 experienced the worst week than the last financial crisis in 2008 and the dot-com bubble.
Apart from that, 100 countries have banned international travel restrictions; where half of the Europe and US populations are under lockdown and virtually overall world. Hence, the effects of these measures on the economy are inevitable that have significantly affected businesses (Blue swan daily, 2019). Since governmental advice and restriction on gatherings have emptied the restaurants, restricted travel has affected the aviation industry along with the tourism industry, hospitality industry, and other small businesses have also been affected in the worst way due to their interdependence and same revenue streams from tourism and business trips.
It is not only the tourism industry but except the medical industry; secondary effects of social distancing can be observed in the overall manufacturing industry that people are confined and are practicing social distances to contain the virus that has slowed the shopping again affecting billion of the small businesses that have halted most of the production worldwide (Bertha, 2020). In widespread and contagious situations, it is less likely for the businesses to operate when there is no buyer except for the fast-moving consumer goods because due to the loss of jobs and businesses people have limited their spending on necessities only.
Tourism Industry and Hospitality Industry
The global tourism industry has been contributing 10% of global GDP and World Travel and Tourism Council has also warned that due to the COVID-19 pandemic 50 million jobs could be lost worldwide in the travel and tourism industry. It is also anticipated that Asia is to be worst affected by this pandemic; where after the outbreak the industry could take up to 10 months to recover from the crisis (World Economic Forum, 2020). In addition, the latest strict measures by governments worldwide could be used to anticipate the worst effect on the industry as the US has banned travel to Europe that has halted travel from and in.
These measures have also been termed as making the industry in the worst case. More than 850,000 people travel from Europe to the United States each month and this would lead to a loss of $3.4 billion loss each month to the US economy and affect the tourism and hospitality industry (Skift, 2020). On the other hand, during the pandemic 50 million jobs will be lost whereas Asia would have 30 million people jobless related to the tourism and hospitality industry. Therefore, in wake of travel restrictions, 12%-14% of jobs would be reduced (World Economic Forum, 2020).
Therefore, the tourism industry is in greater crisis due to pandemics and the effect has also been unquestionable as compared to the previous experiences with SARS or H1N1 and also financial crises in 2008. In the current situation hospitality industry, airlines, and cruise operators are hit hard as travel is being restricted. International trips have been canceled by many organizations around the world such as Zurich insurer canceled trips of 2000 employees and others BBVA Deutsche bank have also canceled the trips of employees to Europe and Asian countries. Similarly, the Chinese Lunar year has been considered one most prestigious events that attract millions of travelers around the world to China and make airports, and the hospitality industry work at full capacity for months before bookings (Travel Daily News International, 2020). However, due to this pandemic, the Lunar year’s celebrations had also been canceled by the government of China.
Financial Analysis
Hypothesis and Assumptions of the study
H1: COVID-19 has affected the share price of the company significantly.
H2: The mean difference between return before COVID-19 and after COVID-19 is equal to Zero
Past Performance
Assets
Figure 3 illustrates the asset performance of the IHI PLC. It can be observed that the company's assets have been growing constantly, indicating its strategy to become highly capital intensive and diversify and leverage investment geographically to improve revenue streams. Assets in the hospitality industry have been key to success as revenue streams increases and the value of the assets also rises which could have a positive effect on the financial position of the company.
Revenues
Figure 4 demonstrates the revenues streams of the IHI PLC for over a decade and it can be observed that revenues of the company have been rising but to some extent negative growth of also observed in 2009 that was due to the financial crisis and during 2014 due to lower demand and on-going projects in different continents including undertaking hotels third-party hotels under management. However, lower demand can also be attributed to the Ebola virus in 2014. Similarly, this resulted in doubling the revenues and EBITDA of the company till 2017 which reflects upon the strong year-on-year growth in the revenues. Therefore, this implies that IHI has the potential hard-working and efficient, skilled, and professional employees to handle operations. However, the net profit available to shareholders has not been so attractive over some time; major fluctuations could be found mostly downward as illustrated in figure 5
The group experienced all-time in 2003 with a loss of 36.02% but it started to recover until 2007 when it achieved 9.21% growth followed by 10.63% in 2008 but due to the global financial crisis then returned to loss until 2016. However, as of 2017 company returned to be profitable till 2018, and potentially 2019 to be reported later. There are two implications from major fluctuations in net profit of the company; one that assets of the company have been rising consistently throughout the period increases the taxes and other operational costs burdens for the company hence it could not arise out of loss almost for 8 years; and secondly as of the portfolio of the company increased to its hotels, resorts and other third-party hotels and commercial plazas started to provide significant profits in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Therefore, based on this assumption growth in net income was further expected for the year 2020 but due to the Coronavirus pandemics, the situations remain unclear.
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Share Price
The nominal value of the share is €1 per share, but as of 2nd April, the share price was €0.595 has fallen by 28.31% since COVID-19 emerged in December 2019. The graph also shows fluctuations during the period. Meanwhile, fluctuations have been throughout the period since 2000; and the average share price has always remained at 0.7 to 0.8 since its inception. Therefore, these fluctuations could not be used as a measure of the performance of the company instead fluctuations patterns combined with different time windows could provide valuable insights for investors. For instance, based on the efficient market hypothesis, the market is perfect and the share price reflects all available information in the market and is the fair and true value of the share. Therefore, the share price must reflect the all information available in the market in the future, based on this approach and the assumption it can be anticipated that IHI PLC has been in the hotel industry for decades and its share prices truly reflect its performance and that value of the shareholders had instead grown during the financial crises despite reporting a loss for next 8 years. This implies that the survivability of the group is greater than any other company in the market; thus, this performance and strength of the company can be used as a way forward to approach a valuable insight for the shareholders of the company.
Structural Break-Point
In addition, the Chow breakpoint test has been used to determine if the structural breakpoint at specified data occurs. The core function of the Chow test is to assess the difference between the coefficients before the breaking point and after the breaking point (Ho and Huang, 2015). If the structural breakpoint exists then the difference between the coefficients is found significantly different in the before and after scenario. Meanwhile, the results of the Chow breakpoint are illustrated as follows
The null hypothesis of the Chow test is that no breakpoints exist at specified break-points and the alternate hypothesis of the test is that there is a breakpoint at specified breakpoints. Since, the Prob. F (2,68) is 0.000 which is less than the selected significance of 0.05 hence it is evident to reject the null hypothesis of no break points and accept the alternate hypothesis that there is a structural breakpoint at a specified date. Therefore, we can infer that the value of shares has been affected by the emergence of COVID-19 and that the effect of these break-points also indicates a major challenge that the company might face.
Significance of difference mean return
Furthermore, to determine either the difference between the share price before COVID-19 took place in December and after the pandemic took place worldwide. In this regard, an independent sample’s t-test has been conducted to determine if the difference between the mean return is statistically significant or not.
The result of the independent sample’s t-test shows that the mean return after COVID-19 was -0.61% is a net loss in value of shareholders and the average return before the COVD-19 was 0.02% suggesting that shareholders had gained at least 0.02% each day. Comparing the average values, it is evident that there is a major difference but to determine whether the difference is significant or not; t-test two-sample assuming unequal variances have been and the results of the test suggest that that t critical value is greater than the t-value suggesting to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternate hypothesis that states that mean the difference between the return before COVID-19 and after COVID-19 I not equal to zero. Hence, it is sufficient evidence to argue that COVID-19 has affected the returns of the shareholders and this could also place further challenges on the shareholders regarding their investment. It is the core reason behind the decline in COVID-19 has affected investors’ sentiments and investors have been opting out of their investment to potentially save the value that shares may lose in upcoming weeks or the foreseeable future.
Future Prospects
The table above illustrates the similarities and differences between the previous pandemics and financial crises with COVID-19; the data was extracted from multiple sources and it can be observed severity of the COVID-19 is different and there are no similarities between the events. Therefore, we can infer that COVID-19 tends to have a different effect on the global economy and also the tourism industry. Meanwhile, stock market volatility has crossed limited and has turned 120 years below even more than the great depression in 1933. On the other hand, in no events within the history of IHI PLC, the global economy has not been hit so hard that it entirely stops the manufacturing industries, banned travel, and quarantined people in their homes.
Precautionary Actions Evaluation
The first and foremost action of the company was that took all stakeholders of the company into confidence by promoting a positive wave among the investors and employees. The company has undertaken all stakeholders into a great consensus that the priority is to sustain the IHI PLC at any cost, and it has provided detailed analysis and information on how could this is possible. The company has announced to take all expenses to absolute minimum levels after which salaries and wages would be the only expenses. Hence, for wages company has announced a 60% salary for employees and other executives and has decided to not fire any of the employees; meanwhile, the company has also been in negotiations with the banks locally and internationally to avoid the interest payments along with principle payments and many banks have already agreed on this point. On the other hand, IHI PLC has also undertaken in-depth and detailed cash flows analysis to prepare for the worst-case scenario; whereas it has also been in discussion with many banks to acquire funds to meet wages and salaries expenses in case of a pandemic continues. Therefore, the precautionary measures of the IHI have been well received by all stakeholders and can be stated as more appropriate and effective actions.
Negative Effects and Potential Risks
The negative effects of the Pandemic on the firm have been listed in the economic implications section; where it has been found that stock markets have turned 120 years low in history and also greater than the great depression. Meanwhile, significant volatility in the stock markets reflects shareholders' sentiments to save their investment, and investors have serious concerns. Similarly, it is expected that global GDP would decline by 4.46% which is higher than the economic shock of 2008 in which industries and manufacturing sectors were partially affected but due to the COVID-19. Meanwhile, transnational trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) has been significantly affected based on the fact that peoples are confined in their homes and this has also led to restrictions on international travel. Based on these all consequences of the COVID-19, the negative effects on the hotel industry are worsted since hotels have been completely emptied or a handful of rooms is full that would also be emptied sooner or later. Therefore, the revenues of the hotels would be almost zero, and would have to meet with at least wages and salaries liabilities to survive. Meanwhile, a potential risk also exists for the IHI PLC that if this pandemic continues for the next 2 years then IHI PLC may not be able to survive further. Therefore, the potential risk for the company is significant.
Cash flows Analysis
IHI PLC has prepared a detailed cash flows analysis for two scenarios; (1) scenario A and (2) scenario B. In scenario A, it is expected that the company would make no profit from April to September and then would make a 25% profit from last year’s figures from October to December. The analysis of cash flow shows that the company would have a sufficient amount of cash on hand to meet liabilities until august but after which it may face difficulty to pay wages. Meanwhile, in this scenario company would require additional financing from banks to meet with salaries expenses. However, in scenario B it is assumed that IHI PLC would make not revenues from April to December, and in this scenario, the company would also go out of cash or the closing cash balance of the company would become negative in August. Hence, it may also require more additional funds to meet liabilities than scenario A. It is because scenario B generates no revenue but in scenario, A revenue is expected from September. Therefore, it is determined that in either of the scenario, the company will be in difficult times and may not be able to pay wages to employees.
The past performance of the company shows that it has been facing hard times since its inception and its share price has also been fluctuating throughout the period but still company’s assets have been increasing despite realizing net losses for almost 8 years continuously. Therefore, it can also be anticipated that could survive in the future; but considering the intensity of the COVID-19 with other pandemics and financial crises then it is evident that COVID-19 is more serious and contagious than other viruses hence the consequences would also differ in terms of human losses and economic losses. Furthermore, it is also important to note that when the intensity of the COVID-19 is higher than it would also lead to greater economic losses to the hospitality industry, tourism industry, and aviation as well. There can be two scenarios; (1) if the vaccine of the coronavirus is not prepared for the next eighteen months then will IHI PLC survive, and (2) if the vaccine is produced earlier that is less likely than what could be a potential position of the company.
Worst Case – Scenario
In the first case, if the pandemic continues to be as contagious as it has been the number of cases worldwide tends to rise exponentially as the number of cases has doubled in a single week and crossed 1 million reported cases worldwide. If it continues to be the same then the quarantine period would be further extended till the virus we contained because contemporarily social distancing is only a cure to the virus. In this condition, it is most likely that IHI PLC would have to remain in a zero-revenue scenario throughout the period until the world is immunized which will only happen when the vaccine is ready. In addition to, 18 months are only projected to develop the vaccine and it does not account for the mass production period and distribution around the world. Hence, these 18 months could also be equal to more than 24 months until all travel restrictions are lifted slowly around the world.
Best Case – Scenario
In the second case, if the vaccine is produced less than the projected time then this would not be less than at least a year to immunize the world from COVID-19. Therefore, this could be a best-case scenario for the IHI PLC that would take the entire 2020 and first quarter of 2021. In addition, it is also important to highlight that businesses including the hospitality industry would take at least a year to recover and turn to normalcy. However, due to this pandemic, the frequency of travel, tour, and business trips can be affected in many ways. For instance, the corporate business has learned to carry out business transactions, not face-to-face, and during the pandemic use of digital tools has become an important way to carry out business without being face to face. Secondly, distance learning could also emerge and may also be promoted worldwide to let students be at their homes or anywhere in the world but still be enrolled in the world’s any university.
In addition, it is also anticipated that shape of the world could also be changed and the way travel was being used could also be affected. Hence, it is more likely to affect the hospitality industry even after the outbreak is controlled and the virus is contained. Similarly, IHI PLC’s share price has already been in significant fluctuations and has been trading below its share price. Hence, this remains a major concern that the share price of the company is sufficient for the shareholders to assume the company would or would have been performing in the future if the efficient market hypothesis is considered.
Conclusion
In wake of a global pandemic, businesses are primarily affected followed by the people associated with those businesses and communities. The concern remains to be followed until this will end but would IHI PLC rise again is another cause of concern for shareholders. It is because the intensity and severity of the COVID-19 are anticipated much more than other pandemics and economic loss is also greater than the financial crises in 2008. Therefore, from an investor’s point of view, what has to be done to handle their investment? Either opting out would be a feasible option or further investment to support survival would be more beneficial to gain value for the investors? To address these concerns and questions; the following report was prepared in which it has been found that despite the severity and intensity of the virus, it has to end in the foreseeable future anyway; but still, the firm’s survival would be a major issue because it may not be possible for the IHI to continue to pay 60% of salaries to employees and this would also require the company to liquidate some of the assets, acquire a loan and wait for a government bailout package. Therefore, opting out of an investment is not a rational decision at all since it would only miss the opportunity to benefit from the situation. Therefore, the further investment would help to survive the company for a period until the virus is contained and the world is immunized. However, uncertainty and risk remain to be there which is also a feature of the business and without which gain cannot be achieved.
Recommendations and Implications
It is recommended to LAFICO buy some of IHI's shares to support the collapse of the business entirely. The current share price of the IHI is much lower than the nominal value and it will definitely but may not immediately gain the value and reach to real price in the market. Therefore, it will provide a capital gain throughout the pandemic, and after the pandemic is over then the business can further establish stronger roots to flourish in the global market with an already built diversified portfolio geographically. Secondly, IHI PLC has survived in very difficult times such as it has been on loss for 8 years but still was operating; similarly, it has already taken measures to bring costs to an absolute minimum. Secondly, things may get worst but if the investment is opted out then there is no alternate option for investment anywhere around the world due to this pandemic. Hence, the LAFICO must buy some of the shares of the company to remain firm in hard times and achieve benefits in terms of capital and potential value in the future.
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